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Abstract As Arctic regions warm rapidly, it is unclear whether high‐latitude soil carbon (C) will decrease or increase. Predicting future dynamics of Arctic soil C stocks requires a better understanding of the quantities and controls of soil C. We explore the relationship between vegetation and surface soil C in an understudied region of the Arctic: Baffin Island, Nunavut, Canada. We combined soil C data for three vegetation types—polar desert, mesic tundra, and wet meadow—with a vegetation classification to upscale soil C stocks. Surface soil C differed significantly across vegetation types, and interactions existed between vegetation type and soil depth. Polar desert soils were consistently mineral, with relatively thin organic layers, low percent C, and high bulk density. Mesic soils exhibited an organic‐rich epipedon overlying mineral soil. Wet meadows were consistently organic soil with low bulk density and high percent C. For the top 20 cm, polar desert contained the least soil C (2.17 ± 0.48 kg m⁻²); mesic tundra had intermediate C (8.92 ± 0.74 kg m⁻²); wet meadow stored the most C (13.07 ± 0.69 kg m⁻²). Extrapolating to the top 30 cm, our results suggest that approximately 44 Tg C is stored in the study region with a mean landscape soil C stock of 2.75 kg m⁻²for non‐water areas. Combining vegetation mapping with local soil C stocks considerably narrows the range of estimates from other upscaling approaches (27–189 Tg) for soil C on South Baffin Island. 

Abstract Uncertainty attribution in water supply forecasting is crucial to improve forecast skill and increase confidence in seasonal water management planning. We develop a framework to quantify fractional forecast uncertainty and partition it between (1) snowpack quantification methods, (2) variability in post‐forecast precipitation, and (3) runoff model errors. We demonstrate the uncertainty framework with statistical runoff models in the upper Tuolumne and Merced River basins (California, USA) using snow observations at two endmember spatial resolutions: a simple snow pillow index and full‐catchment snow water equivalent (SWE) maps at 50 m resolution from the Airborne Snow Observatories. Bayesian forecast simulations demonstrate a nonlinear decrease in the skill of statistical water supply forecasts during warm snow droughts, when a low fraction of winter precipitation remains as SWE. Forecast skill similarly decreases during dry snow droughts, when winter precipitation is low. During a shift away from snow‐dominance, the uncertainty of forecasts using snow pillow data increases about 1.9 times faster than analogous forecasts using full‐catchment SWE maps in the study area. Replacing the snow pillow index with full‐catchment SWE data reduces statistical forecast uncertainty by 39% on average across all tested climate conditions. Attributing water supply forecast uncertainty to reducible error sources reveals opportunities to improve forecast reliability in a warmer future climate.